Bayes' theorem reminds us that even with a 99% accurate test, if only 1% have the disease, a positive result is more likely to be a false alarm. That probability, the positive predictive value, is what we must calculate for the patient. But in the crowded OPD at KEM Hospital, I've seen how a junior doctor's face falls delivering a "positive" report before explaining this nuance—the human cost of that initial scare is not in the formula. We must handle the numbers, but never forget the person hearing them.
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